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Renewable energy (RE) sources now make up roughly a quarter of the country’s power mix, bringing the Philippines closer to its long-term goals of raising RE’s share to 35% by 2030 and 50% by 2040.
Such progress is likely to be seen as encouraging by climate advocates, whom Manila Times columnist Ben Kritz noted have become increasingly vocal following the recent power supply emergencies in Luzon and the Visayas.
According to the opinion writer, the recent power alerts were leveraged by some clean energy advocates to push for a faster shift away from conventional sources, particularly coal, arguing that plant breakdowns highlight the need to accelerate RE expansion amid worsening climate and extreme weather risks.
This view was echoed by groups such as the Philippine Movement for Climate Justice (PCMJ), which, in a May 14 Facebook statement, attributed the Visayas power shortage to the unavailability of coal-fired plants.
“Since most of these units are coal-fired power plants, the Philippine Movement for Climate Justice underscores that coal is not only polluting but also structurally unreliable, undermining grid stability,” stated the PCMJ. “A rapid and just transition to renewable energy is necessary not only to secure energy supply and shield communities from external shocks, but also to advance climate justice for poor and vulnerable sectors who contribute the least to climate change yet suffer the most from its impacts.”
However, Kritz argued that it is not unusual for some power plants to be offline or running at reduced capacity, as this is part of normal grid management. While a few cases may involve operator issues, most are due to routine maintenance or grid stability measures needed to keep the system functioning reliably.
(Also read: Ilocos Norte Emerges As Renewable Energy Hub With Vena Solar Developments)
Were the Recent Red Alerts Connected to Renewable Energy?
During the congressional hearing on the red alerts, the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) warned that the system would remain vulnerable without sufficient baseload capacity and that continued shortfalls could lead to more frequent red alerts.
Baseload capacity refers to continuous, round-the-clock power generation that keeps the grid consistently supplied, serving as a critical backbone for maintaining stability and reliability in the electricity system.
“The incoming solar capacity is a welcome addition to our pool of energy sources,” stated NGCP CEO Anthony Almeda. “But, as the sun begins to set, and solar power harvest starts waning, the system again loses much-needed capacity.”
He noted that the May 13 to 15 red and yellow alerts following the transmission line tripping began in the mid-afternoon and lasted until midnight, when solar power was no longer contributing to the grid.
During the Economic Journalists Association of the Philippines (EJAP) energy forum on May 26, Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) Chairman Atty. Francis Saturnino C. Juan also made the connection between the alerts and RE, saying that solar output typically peaks around 2 p.m., giving the grid enough cushion through the hottest part of the afternoon. However, the trouble begins between 3 and 4 p.m., when the sun starts to fade and generation drops off, just as households switch on fans, lights, and appliances for the evening.
What those red alerts revealed, stretching from late afternoon to as late as midnight, is not a shortage of power plants but a shortage of flexibility. The grid handles the solar peak well enough, but has no reliable backup once that output tapers off. “We are not simply facing an afternoon and early evening shortage, we are facing a flexibility shortage in the hours after the sun goes down,” he explained.
The existing grid was not originally designed to accommodate large volumes of intermittent RE, which was also highlighted by former Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) Chairperson Monalisa Dimalanta. She wrote that the recent Luzon grid incident and successive red and yellow alerts should be viewed as warning signals pointing to the need for deeper power sector reforms. Shesaid that as the generation mix shifts to include a higher share of RE, upgrades in transmission infrastructure and adjustments in system operations are crucial.
“…the grid remains a highly centralized network designed to operate with large power generation units,” she wrote. “… given the direction the DoE has taken on increasing supply from RE and indigenous resources to wean us away from dependence on imported fuels, what revisions are needed in: a.) the grid’s design to most efficiently serve variably-sized RE plants located in multiple far-flung sites, and b.) the operation of a power system with high-and-dispersed RE penetration?”
For instance, MGen’s Terra Solar Power Project, with an impressive 2,500-megawatt capacity, underscores both the promise and limits of scaling up renewables. But the company itself noted that the country’s power grid remains a practical constraint, stressing the need for continued investment in transmission infrastructure and energy storage to improve system resilience.
While NGCP welcomed the project, it stressed that not all renewable technologies function in the same way, as sources like solar and wind are inherently variable and intermittent, requiring more careful integration into the power system.
“There are operational considerations that must be carefully managed on both the side of the transmission, and more importantly, on the side of the generating plant,” the grid operator stated. “Doing so will help grid stability and mitigate any fluctuations inherent in variable renewable energy sources (VREs).”
This concern was underscored by a January 2026 voltage fluctuation in parts of North Luzon linked to variability in RE output, which affected local system stability. The incident highlighted how sudden changes in RE generation can impact voltage levels, prompting NGCP to implement measures to prevent further disturbances.
PhilStar columnist Boo Chanco also raised concerns over the rapid expansion of rooftop solar capacity, warning that large volumes of distributed generation could pose operational challenges for the grid. He said the fast growth of household solar systems can create mismatches between supply and demand, including reverse power flows and unstable voltage conditions in networks originally designed for one-way electricity distribution.
“Getting a zero billing from Meralco, through net metering, makes one feel victorious. But the cost of building and maintaining the grid, to which the zero-billing household is still connected as backup, would then fall on those who cannot afford to buy a rooftop solar installation,” he stressed. “This has the unintended consequence of making rooftop solar an anti-poor alternative.”
(Also read: Why Renewable Energy Expansion Can Lead to More Expensive Power)
Lapses in the Philippine Energy Plan
Technology is steadily advancing to address grid challenges, but even in countries with highly developed RE systems, the solution is not yet fully in place.
The Iberian blackout is a cautionary tale of the aggressive pursuit of RE. On April 28, 2025, Spain and Portugal suffered a major outage that also affected parts of southern France. At the time, Spain was generating around 59% of its electricity from solar, and a voltage imbalance escalated into a cascading failure that left millions without power, underscoring the operational challenges of systems with high shares of intermittent renewables.
Meanwhile, Dimalanta referred back to findings from the 2020 Competitive Renewable Energy Zones (CREZ) study with the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory, which flagged a “timescale misalignment” between fast-built wind and solar projects and much slower transmission development, often delayed by right-of-way and regulatory hurdles.
She also pointed to a “project siting mismatch,” noting that while NGCP has identified available capacity for new connections, these may not align with the locations of RE projects under current procurement plans. Without closer coordination between generation planning and transmission development, she warned that the system risks becoming less efficient, more costly, and less reliable.
However, the problem with transmission upgrades is that these are typically recovered over time through regulated charges, meaning costs can eventually be reflected in consumer electricity bills, subject to regulatory approval.
Upon reviewing May’s electricity bill, BusinessWorld columnist Bienvenido Oplas noted that higher transmission charges were largely driven by the inclusion of ancillary services, including battery systems and oil- and gas-fired peaking plants. He said these costs have risen alongside the growing share of intermittent RE added to the grid without sufficient storage support.
Energy affordability is also the issue Pangasinan 2nd District Rep. Mark Cojuangco raised,warning that heavy reliance on intermittent energy sources without sufficient baseload capacity could push electricity costs higher and weaken energy security. He noted that solar plants typically operate at only about 15% effective capacity, and current battery storage remains inadequate to meet peak evening demand.
“This is an example of marketing,” he asserted. “The public is being misled about the capability of wind and solar.”
While debates continue over whether RE or legacy fuels are more reliable, the pressing issue is that decisions must be made based on today’s realities of the power system. Without timely action, the Philippines risks recurring brownouts and higher electricity prices, outcomes that would further strain an already fragile economy and deepen the burden on households already facing poverty.
What is needed is not an aggressive or disruptive shift but a pragmatic transition that aligns with infrastructure readiness and operational capacity. Energy policy must prioritize stability and ensure that the most important stakeholder, the consumer, is protected from avoidable supply disruptions and price shocks.
Sources:
https://www.instagram.com/p/DWUIAVhFI99
https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2026/05/22/751239/all-about-that-grid/
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/2234978/ngcp-clarifies-we-can-only-transmit-power-if-its-available
https://mb.com.ph/2026/05/18/blame-game-on-blackouts-whos-really-at-fault
https://www.philstar.com/business/2026/05/18/2528626/rooftop-solar
https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2026/01/08/2499519/ngcp-welcomes-terra-solar-project-but
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Iberian_Peninsula_blackout
https://manilastandard.net/news/314744943/solons-hit-doe-over-power-cuts.html